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"Day by day it becomes more evident, that the oil we happily possess in excellent quality and abundance is the mainspring of modern material civilisation. Oil in truth stands not beside but entirely above all other commodities. It is the material source of the energy of the country, the universal aid, the factor in all we do. It can be no matter of surpirse that year by year we make larger drafts upon a material of such myriad qualities of such miraculous powers.The question concerning the duration of our present cheap supplies of oil cannot but excite deep intrest and anxiety wherever or whenever it is mentioned for a little reflextion will show that oil is almost the sole necessary basis of our material power. The constant tendency of discovery is to render oil a more and more efficient agent. While there is no probalility that when our oil is used up any more powerful substitute will be forthcoming we cannot make up for a future want of oil by importation from other countries. Considering how greatly our manufacturers and navigation depend upon oil and how vast is our consumption of it, compared with that of our nations, it cannot be supposed that we shall do without oil more than a fraction we do with it. It is them simply reffered that we cannot long continue our present rate of progress. All things considered it is not reasonable to suppose or exspect that the power of oil will ever be superseded by anything better. It is the naturally best source of power as air and water and gold and iron are each for its own purposes the most useful substances and such as will never be superseded. I draw the conclusion, that we cannot long maintain our present rate of increase of comsumption, that the cost of fuel must rise to rate injurious to our commercial and manufacturing supremacy and the conclusion is evitable, that our present happy progressive condition is a thing of limited duration. The alternatives before us are simple: we have to take the momentous choice between brief but true greatness and and longer continued mediocrity.“
The moment electric war machines can beat fossil fuel powered war machines we will no longer need oil.
Another brilliant lecture. Wow!
28:00 Slick!! that's exactly what happened when gas was 4$/gallon, they were just stress testing the economy, and getting policies in place.
I always agree with Milton Friedman and economically fossil fuels are better, but what about environmental pollution?
Milton Friedman is one of those special few people who the world would benefit greatly from if they had eternal life to forever refresh the new generations from time to time about some basic truths of the economy and the world.
good info, explains how things work but does not change the need to switch too clean energy. Reducing our use of energy will help make the transition easier. low prices help low income earners make ends meet. I agree with many of his ideas on less government control but at the same time we need to protect the environment for future generations. times have change since the 80's.
24:00 he starting to double talk as he always does. He's saying prices will move us to an alternative, then complains the prices are too low, and that we're not using enough of it to make the price go up. This guy is so ridiculous in his logic. He presents facts, then goes into his opinions, I think, he's hoping the facts he earlier states will rub off onto his nonfactual illogical absurd opinions.And his facts were misleading. During the time he's mentioning prices actual started to come up in 1978 to 1983 peaking at higher real prices than in 1919. Parts seem correct and follow logic. But various moments of some opinions specifically the moment above makes no sense its contradictory.He then complains about how OPEC cartels cheat the system by dumping on the market in the sense causing prices to go too low than allowing the prices to rise when they've cut the competitors production, that it takes time to adapt, and then makes fun of other economist and the government for slapping dumping tariffs on foreign oil knowing fully well that the cartels are going to reduce their production once the domestic producers are bankrupt or at low production. He talks out both sides his mouth.I'm always hoping I'll hear some actual wisdom from him, as he gets so much praise by some people. But every time I listen to him it's just double talk incoherence, or ideology.This one was just incoherent. He as political discussing the dept. of Energy. Because he leaves out what that agency does and that the Act of 1977 was a consolidation of 3 departments, the majority of what the department of energy does isn't oil related, its security specifically over nuclear energy production, supplies and weapons production; that he was just being politically by conveniently ignoring crucial details.
Day by day it becomes more evident that the oil we happily possess in excellent quality and abundance is the mainspring of modern material civilization. Oil in truth stands not beside but entirely above all other commodities. It is the material source of the energy of the country—the universal aid—the factor in everything we do. It can be no matter of surprise that year by year we make larger draughts upon a material of such myriad qualities—of such miraculous powers. The question concerning the duration of our present cheap supplies of oil cannot but excite deep interest and anxiety wherever or whenever it is mentioned: for a little reflection will show that oil is almost the sole necessary basis of our material power. The constant tendency of discovery is to render oil a more and more efficient agent, while there is no probability that when our oil is used up any more powerful substitute will be forthcoming. We cannot make up for a future want of oil by importation from other countries. Considering how greatly our manufactures and navigation depend upon oil, and how vast is our consumption of it compared with that of other nations, it cannot be supposed that we shall do without oil more than a fraction of what we do with it. It is then simply inferred that we cannot long continue our present rate of progress. All things considered, it is not reasonable to suppose or expect that the power of oil will ever be superseded by anything better. It is the naturally best source of power, as air and water and gold and iron are, each for its own purposes, the most useful of substances, and such as will never be superseded. I draw the conclusion that we cannot long maintain our present rate of increase of consumption; that the cost of fuel must rise. To a rate injurious to our commercial and manufacturing supremacy. And the conclusion is inevitable that our present happy progressive condition is a thing of limited duration. The alternatives before us are simple. We have to make the momentous choice between brief greatness and longer continued mediocrity.
It takes energy to create and find new energy. This doesn't mean just oil in the ground but completely new sources such as fusion etc. I miss Milton Friedman he used to be on the Sunday talk shows when there were only three networks. He provoked great ideas and thoughtful discussion. All we get today are sound bytes.
When was this video recorded?
What year is this?
Just a quick correction on people thinking that the amount of oil today cannot meet future demand is so off base, as in the comments of martingrannholmen…The obama administration's GAO estimates that the US has 3.2 trillion barrels of shale oil in the green river formation alone, 50% of which is recoverable..this is 4 times the amount of saudi reserves. This does not take into account the great amount of Nat Gas we have and can be used to replace much of the energy we need today and for the future.
Energy crisis only exists because of the restrictions by today's government, much like the periods in which Friedman is speaking about in this video.
9000 views for Milton Friedman's lectures while Miley Cyrus's songs get a million hits is exactly whats wrong with the world. No wonder politicians can easily sell us more socialism while the socialism and welfare state itself have got us into this mess because general public does not understand a squat about economics.Many thanks to the uploader of these videos.
He's surprisingly funny. 56:26 got me
I would love to hear him speak now that gas is around 5 dollars and not 70 cents.
What he says at 33:00-34:00 is entirely still true to this day.
I am so glad that they had the good sense to film some of his lectures. The information he gives in them is so timeless.
wont happen, cute cat videos are what the ignorant public demand. unless milton is holding two kittens cleaning each other I dont think he will get any more views.
That is true in the short term, however natural oil will eventually run out in the long term. Alternatives, like we both have said, will one day become cheaper than oil, and the use of conventional natural oil will be something relegated to the history books.
I've been a petroleum geologist and studying petroleum reserves for over a decade- oil will not run out-the hydrocarbons are there…. Oil will simply get progressively more expensive-though the rate at which oil increases in price will be determined by technological breakthroughs and the economics of future unconventional production
Have you not heard of all the innovation? Synthetic fuel, Horizontal drilling, fracking, wind turbines, solar panels, and the most promising Nuclear power reactors – such as the Onagawa power plant -the closest power plant to the 2011 Japanese earthquake and tsunami having survived the mag 9 quake and following 13 meter high wave safely shut down – unlike the older poorer designed Fukushima I reactors. PROVING nuclear power can be safe, if correctly designed. The present energy crisis will pass
What specificially cannot continue ad infinitum? Our exploitation of the energy within chemical and nuclear bonds? For all intents and purposes, of course it can! The universe is big. Natural oil will of course eventually run out, however synthetic fuel(innovation) will shore up any shortfall. Didn't you listen to Friedman at all?
The UK is looking into fracking for gas because the price demand is now high enough.
Fracking has made the USA into a net exporter of oil as of 2012, Milton has been proven right yet again. New technologies will stretch and new reserve 'discoveries' will continue pretty much unabated. Eventually synthetic fuel will become cheaper than drilling for it.
Please provide the date of this lecture. Great informative post, youtube needs more videos like this in my humble opinion.
Thirdly, oil is becoming more and more expensive because there are more and more buyers! The developing world is now competing with the first world for oil and like the last Furby at the toy store, it fetches a high price.
Milton isn't saying that oil is infinite. Some things are finite but vast. If you leave harbor in Maryland in a sailboat you don't have to worry about bumping into Iceland on your way out.
Secondly you claimed that we had reached peak oil production; which is just flat out untrue. When we say something is at "peak" we mean that we will never produce more of it in the future. The problem is that we discover new oil reserves all the time! Those new sources push us further away from the peak!
Milton Friedman is dead wrong when he says oil is not a finite resource, it most certainly is a finite resource, and is exponentially declining that is why the price of oil has risen since he made this speech, because at that time we had reached peak oil production hence low oil prices, but it is only a matter of time before we run out, and the massive oil industries will suppress alternative resource markets like they have been doing, and will lead too catastrophic events all due too profit.
I also believe he mentions (though i forget) that we should not play favorites with Big oil.. and should not give them any special treatment.
Let the free market choose where energy should come from.
Additionally… The main Idea is… Why the hell would oil prices go down, if they truly had a easily exhaustible supply. Why would people not just sit on the land and wait for it to become more profitable?
Will oil eventually be gone? Yes… Should we handicap the oil industry, and play favorites to Raw, and crappy Green technologies? No.
When Oil becomes to expensive, and we no longer have coal and natural gas… Maybe by then other methods will be more effective. Right now they are not.
So, He should have known about a study 20-30 years after he makes a statement?
His speech is based off information available at the time he is talking. I am not sure it is fair to point to a 2008 study to say someone doesn't know shit about Energy Policies.. From a speech so long ago.
That being said.. I do not think that this changes what he is talking about. People will find a way to supply additional resources when they become profitable.
8:06 to 9:00 sums up what Energy policy should and must be
There's a clue as to why oil prices continue to now head south despite continuing uncertainties in Iran, Syria
No solamente en Chile ,en el mundo entero…!
every lecture I listen to makes me feel so much more informed. Friedman was wisdom personified.
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